COVID-19 modelling update 8 October 2022

10 October 2022

New modelling (PDF 1.2MB) has been provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and School of Biological Sciences. The model was updated on 8 October 2022, being calibrated against our reported case numbers and hospital admission data.

As previously, this South Australian modelling takes into account the population age distribution, vaccination status (current and future prediction), the number of people who have already had a COVID-19 infection, characteristics of COVID-19 variants and how many of the COVID-19 cases we think we are detecting through testing.

This version of the mathematical COVID model for South Australia has incorporated removing the legal requirement for people testing positive for COVID-19 to isolate from the 14 October, but assuming that a proportion of people will continue to do so, to protect those around them. Slide 1 shows the number of estimated reported cases and the number of estimated actual infections. The number of reported cases will depend on how many South Australians continue to get tested with symptoms of COVID-19.

The model suggests another smaller COVID wave occurring in South Australia in November/December. This is driven in this model by including the general population wanning of immunity to transmission of the infection over time. Immunity is from both vaccination and having experienced an infection. Our vaccines remain very effective against severe disease and hospitalisation. The science is emerging around for rate of wanning of effectiveness against infection and the model will be updated as more information becomes available. The model also does not include the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant.

The model provides estimates of hospital case numbers both for people admitted for COVID-19 (slide 2) and for people who incidentally test positive for COVID but have been admitted for other reasons (slide 3).

This ongoing modelling enables SA Health to prepare for managing COVID-19 in our health services.

Download the SA COVID-19-Ready Modelling (PDF 1.2MB)