COVID-19 modelling update

22 June 2022

New modelling (PDF 852KB) has been provided to SA Health from the University of Adelaide’s School of Mathematical Sciences and School of Biological Sciences.

The latest modelling provides an estimate of expected cases (by date of onset) as well as adult hospitalisations for people admitted for COVID (not including incidental cases). It takes into account the current public health measures, vaccination rates, case ascertainment and estimated transmissibility of the BA.4 and BA.5 variants.

The modelling indicates that we can expect another wave of COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations in the coming weeks months.

There is a significant degree of uncertainty around the size of the peak, but it is not expected that the increase in case numbers associated with the BA.4 and BA.5 variants will be worse than was previously experienced.